District health officials aren't sure when the COVID-19 virus will reach its peak in this area, but if state trends are any indication it could be soon.

    During a media conference on Wednesday, April 15, Lake Cumber-land 
District Health Department CEO Shawn Crabtree said that several 
models are predicting the peak in the state to be within the next two 
to three weeks. As of Monday, April 20, the cases in this area 
totaled 130, with 70 of those still active.
    "If you look at the state tracking trends, Kentucky is leveling 
out," stated Crabtree. "Last week, the number of cumulative cases was 
doubling between every three and four days. As of today (April 15) it 
is doubling nearly every eight days. Lake Cumberland's trends are 
tracking very similarily to the state's trend."
    Wayne County's case number had remained steady for approximately two 
weeks, but numbers increased last week when two other local residents 
tested positive for COVID-19. The district health department reported 
the fifth local case on April 14. A sixth patient was reported on 
April 15.
    In an information brief that was released on Sunday, April 19, Wayne 
County still had a total of six cases. Of those four were active, 
with two people hospitalized and two people self-isolated. Two people 
have been released from isolation.
    Adair County has had the highest number of cases in this area with 
53. They have 44 current cases, with 13 people hospitalized and 31 
self-isolated. They have also recorded the most deaths in this area 
with four.
    Officials had indicated earlier this month that a nursing home in 
Adair County was hit hard by the virus and accounts for the large 
number of cases there.
    Pulaski County has had 35 total cases and have five active as on 
April 19. All five of those individuals were self-isolated. They have 
had 28 people released from isolation and have recorded two deaths 
from COVID-19.
    Two people have died in Russell County, bringing the total to eight 
in this district.
    Following are questions that were addressed during last week's press 
    • Is there any approximation on when generalized testing will be 
available?  Particularly IgM and IgG antibodies as well as rapid 
      These tests are slowly becoming available, and can be useful for 
detecting present or past infection, but currently they are not very 
accurate with many false negatives and positives. They may be useful 
in certain circumstances but the PCR test is going to continue to be 
the definitive test.
    • I saw on the Federal Bureau of Prisons website that they have one 
confirmed case at the prison in Pine Knot, that being an inmate. 
Would any cases confirmed at the prison in McCreary County be 
included in the local county number? Does the health department have 
contact with the prison on the isolation of anyone that tests 
positive there?
    Yes, we are aware of the cases in the Federal Prison and we do count 
them in our totals.  We do contact investigations on staff who are 
positive and quarantine their contacts, however the prison does 
contact tracing on inmates.
    • What criteria leads you to "believe COVID-19 to be widespread", 
"regardless of the confirmed case count for any Lake Cumberland County"?
    In countries where testing is more widespread, it has been found 
that 25 percent of those tested were asymptomatic. We know that 
confirmed cases are the tip of the iceberg so expect many 
undocumented cases in the community. In one long term care facility 
where everyone was tested, 40 percent of the residents who tested positive are presently showing no symptoms.

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