District health officials aren't sure when the COVID-19 virus will reach its peak in this area, but if state trends are any indication it could be soon.
During a media conference on Wednesday, April 15, Lake Cumber-land
District Health Department CEO Shawn Crabtree said that several
models are predicting the peak in the state to be within the next two
to three weeks. As of Monday, April 20, the cases in this area
totaled 130, with 70 of those still active.
"If you look at the state tracking trends, Kentucky is leveling
out," stated Crabtree. "Last week, the number of cumulative cases was
doubling between every three and four days. As of today (April 15) it
is doubling nearly every eight days. Lake Cumberland's trends are
tracking very similarily to the state's trend."
Wayne County's case number had remained steady for approximately two
weeks, but numbers increased last week when two other local residents
tested positive for COVID-19. The district health department reported
the fifth local case on April 14. A sixth patient was reported on
April 15.
In an information brief that was released on Sunday, April 19, Wayne
County still had a total of six cases. Of those four were active,
with two people hospitalized and two people self-isolated. Two people
have been released from isolation.
Adair County has had the highest number of cases in this area with
53. They have 44 current cases, with 13 people hospitalized and 31
self-isolated. They have also recorded the most deaths in this area
with four.
Officials had indicated earlier this month that a nursing home in
Adair County was hit hard by the virus and accounts for the large
number of cases there.
Pulaski County has had 35 total cases and have five active as on
April 19. All five of those individuals were self-isolated. They have
had 28 people released from isolation and have recorded two deaths
from COVID-19.
Two people have died in Russell County, bringing the total to eight
in this district.
Following are questions that were addressed during last week's press
conference.
• Is there any approximation on when generalized testing will be
available? Particularly IgM and IgG antibodies as well as rapid
screens.
These tests are slowly becoming available, and can be useful for
detecting present or past infection, but currently they are not very
accurate with many false negatives and positives. They may be useful
in certain circumstances but the PCR test is going to continue to be
the definitive test.
• I saw on the Federal Bureau of Prisons website that they have one
confirmed case at the prison in Pine Knot, that being an inmate.
Would any cases confirmed at the prison in McCreary County be
included in the local county number? Does the health department have
contact with the prison on the isolation of anyone that tests
positive there?
Yes, we are aware of the cases in the Federal Prison and we do count
them in our totals. We do contact investigations on staff who are
positive and quarantine their contacts, however the prison does
contact tracing on inmates.
• What criteria leads you to "believe COVID-19 to be widespread",
"regardless of the confirmed case count for any Lake Cumberland County"?
In countries where testing is more widespread, it has been found
that 25 percent of those tested were asymptomatic. We know that
confirmed cases are the tip of the iceberg so expect many
undocumented cases in the community. In one long term care facility
where everyone was tested, 40 percent of the residents who tested positive are presently showing no symptoms.
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